Regional disparities in impacts of climate extremes require targeted adaptation of Fairtrade supply chains

Climate extremes can seriously affect supply chains of agricultural commodities, decreasing agricultural production and disrupting transport, which is detrimental to livelihoods of smallholders all around the world. We assess the extent of climate extremes by 2050 on Fairtrade producers of banana, cocoa, coffee, and tea. We find that globally, most of the 1.6 million producers within this supply chain could be affected by future heatwaves across all sourcing regions. However, for some crops and in some regions, producers could also be affected by considerable increases in drought and extreme rainfall. Without timely adaptation measures, production in major banana, cocoa, coffee, and tea regions might not be possible in the future, or farmers might need to diversify or change crops. Through spatially explicit analysis of a particular supply chain, we can support the planning of more climate-proof supply chains that can provide stable incomes and commodity supply under future climate change.