Interpretation of probability in structural safety – A philosophical conundrum

Vrouwenvelder, Ton; Beck, André; Proske, Dirk; Faber, Michael; Köhler, Jochen; Schubert, Matthias; Straub, Daniel; Teichgräber, Max (2024). Interpretation of probability in structural safety – A philosophical conundrum Structural Safety, p. 102473. 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102473

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The term probability is essential in the domain of structural safety and yet its interpretation is, even after more than 50 years of application, still a subject of discussion. For instance, the probability of failure of structures belonging to the same cohort for a specific period of time, is often understood in a pure frequentist way as an observable average number of failure events for that period and portfolio. By contrast, the Bayesian interpretation considers probability as a degree of belief and a reflection of the state of information to the best belief or knowledge of the decision maker. In the field of structural reliability, depending on the type of decision problem, probabilities are often referred to as nominal (or notional) measures of uncertainty to emphasize that these values are conditional on a model and available observations. Probabilistic methods then serve primarily to undertake the book-keeping required to assign probabilities to different possible outcomes or decisions in consistency with models, available observations and other relevant information. This paper discusses the background of these interpretations and the degree to which correspondence between reliability calculations and observations of failures can be expected and/or achieved. Recommendations corresponding to the JCSS line of thinking will be summarized in Section 8.

Item Type:	Journal Article (Original Article)
Division/Institute:	School of Architecture, Wood and Civil Engineering School of Architecture, Wood and Civil Engineering > Institute for Digital Construction and Wood Industry IDBH School of Architecture, Wood and Civil Engineering > Institute for Infrastructure and Environment IIU
Name:	Vrouwenvelder, Ton; Beck, André; Proske, Dirk; Faber, Michael; Köhler, Jochen; Schubert, Matthias; Straub, Daniel and Teichgräber, Max
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TG Bridge engineering T Technology > TH Building construction
ISSN:	0167-4730
Language:	English
Submitter:	Dirk Proske
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2024 08:54
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2024 01:30
Publisher DOI:	10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102473
Related URLs:	Publication
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Uncertainty Aleatory Epistemic Probability Frequentist Nominal Notional Bayesian Model Subjectivity Hidden safety Gross error
URI:	https://arbor.bfh.ch/id/eprint/21986