A statistical risk assessment of Bitcoin and its extreme tail behavior

Osterrieder, Jörg Robert; Lorenz, Julian (2017). A statistical risk assessment of Bitcoin and its extreme tail behavior Annals of Financial Economics, 12(01), p. 1750003. World Scientific Publishing Company 10.1142/S2010495217500038

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We provide an extreme value analysis of the returns of Bitcoin. A particular focus is on the tail risk characteristics and we will provide an in-depth univariate extreme value analysis. Those properties will be compared to the traditional exchange rates of the G10 currencies versus the US dollar. For investors - especially institutional ones - an understanding of the risk characteristics is of utmost importance. So for bitcoin to become a mainstream investable asset class, studying these properties is necessary. Our findings show that the bitcoin return distribution not only exhibits higher volatility than traditional G10 currencies, but also stronger non-normal characteristics and heavier tails. This has implications for risk management, financial engineering (such as bitcoin derivatives) - both from an investor's as well as from a regulator's point of view. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed study looking at the extreme value behaviour of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin.

Item Type:

Journal Article (Original Article)

Division/Institute:

Business School > Institute for Applied Data Science & Finance
Business School

Name:

Osterrieder, Jörg Robert0000-0003-0189-8636 and
Lorenz, Julian

Subjects:

H Social Sciences > HG Finance

ISSN:

2010-4952

Publisher:

World Scientific Publishing Company

Language:

English

Submitter:

Jörg Robert Osterrieder

Date Deposited:

29 Aug 2022 14:09

Last Modified:

30 Aug 2022 09:01

Publisher DOI:

10.1142/S2010495217500038

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Bitcoin, digital currencies, extreme value theory, tail events, risk management

ARBOR DOI:

10.24451/arbor.17400

URI:

https://arbor.bfh.ch/id/eprint/17400

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